Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020

Coronavirus could hurt travel as bad as 9 11 did

The Covid-19 impact on travel to Asia has been devastating,
and the fallout for U.S. tourism will be worse than SARS and possibly as bad as
after 9/11, according to a Tourism Economics report.

Early indicators of the impacts on Asia are “disastrous,”
the group said, noting overnight arrivals to Hong Kong have fallen more than
90% and Thailand arrivals are down 70%. 

The virus has also resulted in two-thirds of airline capacity
to and from China being canceled. 

Global international travel is expected to contract for the
year, even if the world avoids a recession.

Basing its projections on recovery model of 5 to 6 months,
Tourism Economics said the impact to the travel industry in the U.S. will be
worse than the SARS coronavirus outbreak in 2003, when international visits
fell 5.4%.

“It’s not implausible that international declines will be
closer to what we experienced in 2001, when visits to the U.S. fell 8.4%,” the
group said. “Our current models expect an international visitor loss of 7.6%,
concentrated in the second and third quarters of the year. In volume terms,
this represents a decline of 6 million visitors and $19 billion in spending
this year.

“Event cancellations will hurt larger cities with major
international conventions. Groups represent about 24% of hotel room demand and
we are receiving a steady flow of large-event cancellation announcements.
Certainly, a large share of events will continue as planned but attendance may
falter.”

While an increase in domestic travel could soften the blow, Tourism
Economics said the 2004 recovery was accompanied by robust U.S. economic growth
over 3%.

“The current economic situation, both in the U.S. and
globally, is more tepid and at risk due to the ongoing effect of Covid-19 on
consumer confidence, corporate investment and trade, Tourism Economics said.

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